So 2009 – recession, downturn, credit crunch, doom, gloom – you know the drill.
Those big fat advertising budgets are almost certainly going to be slashed (the global ad market is predicted to be the weakest since the 2001 downturn) so it’s likely that change is coming in marketing departments across the globe, as well as in the White House.
The UK media sector will fare the worst of any developed country in 2009 with total advertising spend set to fall by nearly 6% year on year, according to a new report.
The forecast from WPP’s media buying subsidiary Group M makes for grim reading, with UK national newspaper advertising set to be down 12% year on year in 2009, regional titles down 13%, and the business-to-business magazine sector down 14%…
TV advertising will be down 6% year on year, a solid performance in line with the overall downturn in total ad revenue next year, radio ads down 8% and the consumer magazine market down 8.5%.
So yeah, media buyers? Ad agencies? Time to tighten those belts. These changes won’t be so great when the gravy train starts to dry up.
But as a great man said in 2008, change we need.
Brands have relied on the same old same old, tried-and-trusted marketing mix for years, falling back on the backbone of TV, with some outdoor, radio or press chucked in, and maybe a slimline digital budget (of search and banner advertising) to ensure they’ve got a truly ‘multimedia’ schedule. So far so good, no?
The econometric model says it works, doesn’t it? The tracking says it works. The chairman’s wife saw the ad in the break of her favourite ITV drama, and in her weekend supplement (tick). So, it’s a successful formula, right?
Only it’s not working as well as it did. And without the same big fat budgets, the best chance you have of maintaining that all-important share of voice is hoping that everyone else’s budgets have been slashed in line with yours.
Not surprisingly, the likes of the IPA and Thinkbox’s answer to marketing in a recession is to keep on spending. Keep that gravy train running boys.
Lots of brands will keep on doing what they’ve always done, because, well it worked before, so why not now? And their agencies will keep telling them that TV ads work because that’s what they’re in the business of making and buying, and it’s how they make their money. And anyway, telly’s cheaper than it’s been in ages so what have they got to lose? Happy days.
But other brands won’t have the ‘luxury’ of being able to spend their way out of the recession by blowing their budgets on telly. They’ll need to start thinking differently.
Thinking differently is a Good Thing. Brands are going to have to learn to get creative with smaller budgets, and move away from the old gold standards of reach & frequency.
They’ll need to shift their focus away from awareness towards engagement, and replace broadcasting to mass audiences with careful nurturing of brand communities.
Instead of shouting as load as they can, as many times as they can (Ve haf vays of makink you listen!), brands will have to start engaging in conversation with people, and listening to what they have to say – and sorry chaps, this includes the bad stuff as well as the good.
It’s not all going to be plain sailing. Some brands are going to make some almighty cock-ups on the way. We’re going to see some brands marching headlong into an ill-formed social media campaign (note campaign, not strategy) and getting it wrong. Really wrong.
But even that’ll be worthwhile. OK it’ll be pretty hideous at the time, but those brands that do get it wrong will learn how to do it better. And hopefully others will learn by example.
The traditional advertising model is about endless pre-testing, research to make sure it’s watertight, huge investment into a massive broadcast campaign, then post-campaign evaluation to see what worked.
The digital world is in perpetual beta. Try lots of things and see what sticks. Sure, do your research first (please, do your research first!), get to understand the community you’re trying to engage with, and understand how you can add value. But recognise that not everything will work. And that’s OK. Failure is good. Try lots of things and there’ll be some stinkers. But hopefully some gems. Which you’d never have got if you hadn’t have tried in the first place.
Brands that take the bull by the horns and think differently will reap the rewards as they leave the outdated one-way model behind, and move towards a much more rewarding engagement model. Brand that keep their fingers in their ears, and hope that throwing all their money into cheap telly will do the trick, will have a rude awakening when they realise that their lower-spending competitors have stolen a march on them.
This is the change we need.